准确把握区域能源消费碳排放的差异化关键领域和异质性减排抓手是实现“双碳”目标的重要前提。为了进一步厘清区域能源消费碳排放时空特征及影响因素,以川渝地区为例,兼顾化石能源燃烧和区域电力调配两大单元构建能源消费碳排放清单,基于Kaya恒等式和LMDI模型实证检验多元影响因素的作用效应。研究结果表明：① 2015—2022年四川能源消费碳排放量呈下降趋势,而重庆呈上升趋势,这由于可再生能源的资源禀赋差异。从部门构成上看,能源加工转换碳排放集中于火力发电和供热。终端消费中工业为第一大排放源,其次是交通运输业和居民生活,商业和其他服务业也不容忽视,农业和建筑业碳贡献较小。四川通过外输大量水电在保障能源供需安全的同时推动低碳发展,重庆依赖外部电源出力而间接增加碳贡献。② 能源消费结构为抑制因素,其对四川碳减排的贡献逐年增加但对重庆影响较小。能源消费强度为减缓碳排放的关键因素,2016—2017年得益于能源“双控”考核其抑制作用出现峰值。对于四川产业结构为抑制因素且影响逐步减小,对于重庆其影响随着第二产业占比变化而先升后降。经济发展为加速碳排放的关键因素,在低碳新格局下影响逐年减小。人口发展效应取决于规模、文明和配置效应的综合影响。
Abstract
Holding the decisive essence leading to some regional variations in the carbon emission from energy consumption and taking relevant emission-reduction measures are the prerequisites for achieving the dual-carbon goal. Therefore, taken Sichuan-Chongqing area as an example, a carbon-emission inventory which regarded both fossil-fuel combustion and power allocation in different areas was constructed, and the effect of multiple influential factors was discussed on the basis of the Kaya Identity and LMDI model in order to figure out both temporal-spatial characteristics and influential factors of this emission. Results show that (i) a decreasing trend emerged in the carbon emission from energy consumption in Sichuan Province from 2015 to 2022 while an increasing trend in Chongqing City due to the endowment diversity among renewable energy resources. The emission from energy processing and conversion is rooted in thermal power generation and heating sectors. In terms of terminal expenditure, the largest emission source comes from industrial field, followed by transportation and residential life, then business and other services, and both agriculture and building industry making a small contribution to the emission. Sichuan advances the low-carbon strategy in addition to ensuring the energy's supply-demand security through transporting large amount of water and electricity resources, while Chongqing indirectly raises its carbon contribution via relying on external power output; and (ii) as an inhibiting factor, the structure of energy use makes the incremental contribution to the Sichuan's emission year by year while little impact in Chongqing. For the energy intensity as a key factor for emission reduction, its inhibition peaked in 2016-2017 due to benefits from the dual control in the energy use. The industrial structure in Sichuan is an inhibition factor as well, and its influence is slowly diminishing, while that in Chongqing increases first and then decreases with changes of secondary industries' proportion. The economic growth whose effect is on the decease each year under the new pattern of low carbon is also a critical factor in emission acceleration. The effect of population development is affected by population size, social culture, and resource allocation comprehensively.
关键词
能源消费 /
碳排放 /
时空特征 /
影响因素 /
川渝地区
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Key words
Energy consumption /
Carbon emission /
Spatial-temporal characteristics /
Influential factor /
Sichuan-Chongqing area
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脚注
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基金
国家社会科学基金西部项目“‘双碳’目标下我国城市群能源系统碳达峰预测及差异化减排路径研究”（编号：22XGL019）、国家社会科学基金重大项目“能源革命驱动下的天然气产业高质量发展路径研究”（编号：22&ZD105）、四川省哲学社会科学重点研究基地学术研究专项资助“新质生产力赋能四川天然气产业高质量发展的作用机理及政策建议”（编号：SC24E091）、2024年成都市哲学社会科学规划项目“面向深度脱碳的成都新型能源体系构建研究”（编号：2024BS072）
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