MACRO RESEARCH
Chen Ji, Wu Dengding, Lei Yalin, Zhang Wanyi, Ma Fen, Fang Yuan
With the rapid growth of natural-gas demand and the continuous increase of external gas dependence degree, the long-term security, continuity, and stability of domestic gas resource supply attract attentions from Chinese Government, and gas supply and consumption enterprises. It's quite important to evaluate the supply risk, identify the main risk point and risk degree, and finally make a plan and countermeasures in advance. So, the key risk factors were identified on the basis of historical data on domestic and foreign gas production, supply and consumption, and development trends, combined with many previous research results. Then, they were rated from two aspects of risk scale and influencing degree by means of quantitative classification and evaluation methods. Finally, several important factors influencing domestic supply risk were pointed out. Results show that (1) six indicators to evaluate the supply risk are selected by virtue of analysis and evaluation, and quantitative rating is carried out on these indicators, indicating that this risk is mainly embodied in terms of lower guarantee degree of gas resources, higher external dependence degree, and excessive concentration on import source leading to greater political risk; and (2) many countermeasures are made, such as, strengthening comprehensive investigation on domestic gas resources, increasing potential evaluation and risk investment analysis on imported gas resource bases, promoting to construct diversified systems of import source, enlarging international cooperation, innovating finance mechanism, and price and reserve mechanism, and intensifying some innovations on geological theories, technologies, and technical equipment.